Re: Contracting: project duration estimation

Subject: Re: Contracting: project duration estimation
From: Peter <pnewman1 -at- home -dot- com>
To: "TECHWR-L" <techwr-l -at- lists -dot- raycomm -dot- com>
Date: Fri, 08 Jun 2001 09:26:13 -0400

> To produce a more precise estimate for any given project, adjust your metric
> up or down based on your assessment of any special factors for that project.
> Build your own formula; what works for me is a formula I made with the
> following factors: writer ability (in your case, it's just you!), system
> size, system availability and stability, quality and availability of specs,
> SME availability and quality, and whether it's a rush job. I use scales of
> 1-10 for each. (I have slightly different formulas for training and for
> help.)
> Some estimates will turn out to be a little off. So you need to look back at
> the end of each project and figure out why. In some cases, your formula was
> correct, just the data wasn't. For example, say your actual page count
> turned out higher or lower than your initial outline suggested. That's okay.
> To keep automatically refining your formula, keep modifying your hours/page
> metric based on the actual results from each project you do. Your estimates
> should quickly become more and more accurate with this recursive formula.
> It's absolutely crucial, at least for me, to do it this way if I want to be
> accurate. If I just used a thumb-in-the-air kind of method, I would
> chronically underestimate. I guess I just want to please or something. By
> forcing myself to go through the details, I eliminate that tendency for
> error.

After you are finished, take the contingency factor most beneficial to
you and double it.

Mailto:peternew -at- optonline -dot- net

Adapting old programs to fit new machines
usually means adapting new machines to
behave like old ones.


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RE: Contracting: project duration estimation: From: Steven Schwarzman

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