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RE: Think outside the box - Re: A suspected can of worms
Subject:RE: Think outside the box - Re: A suspected can of worms From:"Mark Baker" <mbaker -at- ca -dot- stilo -dot- com> To:"TECHWR-L" <techwr-l -at- lists -dot- raycomm -dot- com> Date:Thu, 26 Jun 2003 10:35:14 -0400
Mike O. wrote
> The exceptional circumstance is the oversupply of domain experts,
> caused by the poor economy.
>
...
> As I understand it, economic laws will eventually return an oversupply
> to an equilibrium, *one way or another*. That's the theory anyway.
But what we saw in the 90's was not just a cyclical economic boom, it was a
classical bubble, like the railway bubble or the South Seas bubble. Bubbles
are driven by some fundamental technological or economic shift and create
"irrational exuberance" that drive investment to dizzying and unmaintainable
heights and creates anomalous economic conditions for all sorts of people.
In the case of the tech bubble, it was driven by the invention of the
microprocessor.
Yes, bubbles create economic booms, and when they burst, they create
economic downturns. But that does not mean that we will return to the
conditions of the bubble as soon as we work our way through the next
economic cycle.
There is no knowing when the next bubble will occur, still less whether it
will create a bunch of jobs for techwriters. What is for certain is that it
will create freakish economic conditions that will create jobs that can only
exist as long as the bubble lasts, and then will be gone, leaving their
practitioners wondering what happened and the schools that sprang up to
train them desperately trying to attract new students.
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Mark Baker
Stilo Corporation
1900 City Park Drive, Suite 504 , Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K1J 1A3
Phone: 613-745-4242, Fax: 613-745-5560
Email mbaker -at- ca -dot- stilo -dot- com
Web: http://www.stilo.com
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