Re: Bad News for Macs

Subject: Re: Bad News for Macs
From: "Arlen P. Walker" <Arlen -dot- P -dot- Walker -at- JCI -dot- COM>
Date: Mon, 10 Apr 1995 15:37:00 -0600

Apple's share of the total operating-system market will drop to 5%
over the next five years, a point at which software developers would
cease producing compatible products. (Wall Street Journal 4/6/95 B7)

Interesting, as Dataquest has also produced figures, which I have here in front
of me, which name Apple as the largest seller of "multimedia computers" with a
22% share, up from 14% a year ago. A 50% gain is good for a company whose share
is supposed dwindling that rapidly. I think rather we're seeing one more
instance of the Wonderful Windows Hype Machine in action. I would have expected
the date to be 4/1, rather than 4/6. ;{>} It'd be interesting to see what kind
of "internal dispute" that report caused. Did it center around the phrase "You
can't publish inaccurate figures simply because your client pays you to?"

As for "discontinue OS/2 for PC's next year," this is probably a misreading of
the intent to put OS/2 on the PowerPC platform. Soon the only systems IBM ships
will be PowerPC-based, so perhaps there won't be any need in their eyes for OS/2
for Intel platforms. This last statement is pure speculation on my part, but
it's the only way I can see IBM "abandoning" OS/2. Perhaps one of the Incredible
Blue Minions who populate the list can comment further?

Just for the record, I'd tend to look askance at the WSJ's opinion of Mac's.
This is the same Journal, after all, which has offered a free forum to the CEO's
of leading software companies, but not to Apple. (Check it out: Gates, Kahn, and
Manzi have all been given the free opportunity to answer items published in WSJ
that had cast their company in a bad light, yet not once has Apple been offered
the same opportunity, despite the number of times WSJ has sneered at them.
That's rather blatant, don't you think?)

In my experience, figures tend to support whatever conclusion the person who
paid for the figures wanted them to support. I'm afraid I've heard the "Apple is
Doomed" speech for so long that it doesn't carry any credibility with me
anymore. They're like the Little Boy Who Cried Wolf. Let's face it, they started
making that speech in 1984 and Apple still is #1 or #2 in market share
(depending upon whose figures you use).


Have fun,
Arlen
Chief Managing Director In Charge, Department of Redundancy Department
DNRC 124

Arlen -dot- P -dot- Walker -at- JCI -dot- Com
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