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Subject: -No Subject-
From: Barry West <Barry_West -dot- S2K -at- S2KEXT -dot- S2K -dot- COM>
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 1995 13:59:56 EDT

>With the dramatically falling prices and the PowerPC systems coming, I'd even
be
>willing to take the zero off that number, Mike . . . three to five may be
too conservative.


I am more inclined to agree with the 10 years Mike talked about with respect to
PowerPC's having any measurable impact on the market. The fact that the
capability is put out there, doesn't mean that everyone is going to scramble to
get it. The computer industry has been moving toward compatibility since the
mid-eighties, but change tends to come slow for a variety of reasons, not all
technical. In the PC world, for example, even with the availability of Pentium
chips, there are still many 286 and 386 users out there and a good number of
third party vendors that support them. Companies and individuals who made large
financial commitments 5 or 6 years ago, one way or the other, are not going to
change there minds in a big hurry. For example, companies who network may go
out and purchase one or two high-end servers, but most clients are going to be
386's or bare bones 486's for quite some time. Why? Because the cost is low and
those systems do the job.

The other issue, of course, is that the PowerPC is an Apple brain child -- for
a reason. Apple has not significantly increased its market share since the mid
eighties, hovering around ten percent, give or take a few points. There are a
bunch of reasons for that, one of which is software availability. Software for
the MacIntosh comparatively speaking is very limited. Ask yourself, if PC's
cause headaches for people and the MacIntosh doesn't, as Mac users claim, why
do people buy more PC's than Mac's? And if you're Apple Computer Company, how
do you solve this problem? --- You provide an easy to use machine that can
run PC based software. It's a great idea. People now have the option of
bringing their PC work home to a Mac. The problem, of course, is that you have
to convince the majority of the market (PC users) that it's a great idea,
primarily by convincing them that they need to run Mac software (Why do I need
a PowerPC if I don't need to run Mac based software?). Right now, that's a
tough sell. Apple users have every reason to move to a PowerPC solution. PC
users, particularly if windows '95 turns out to be everything it's cracked to
up to be, have little reason to move. I agree that it's inevitable because
compatibility has been a trend and will continue to be, but I don't believe
it's going to happen in the next 3 to 5 years. It certainly isn't going to
happen to any great extent until IBM and Microsoft begin to loose market share
because of it. I think it's all going to depend on Apple's ability to change
people's minds. What is their track record on doing that?


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